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Почему новая финансовая политика Китая на руку Казахстану

Почему новая финансовая политика Китая на руку Казахстану

5 Сентября 2017

Автор:

Теги: Казахстан

В первой половине 2017 объявленные прямые исходящие инвестиции Китая в другие страны увеличились всего на 9% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года, когда их рост составил 39%, сказано в исследовании Аналитического кредитного рейтингового агентства (АКРА), опубликованном в понедельник, 4 сентября.

Основной причиной наблюдаемого замедления стали введенные в конце 2016 правительством Китая ограничения на объем прямых иностранных инвестиций для усиления контроля Народного банка Китая (НБК) над валютным курсом, сдерживания коррупции и стимулирования производства внутри страны. 18 августа 2017 были также введены ограничения на иностранные инвестиции в конкретные отрасли (строительство, спорт, индустрия развлечений). Замедление роста китайской экономики (в 2017 темп роста реального ВВП составит примерно +5,6%, а в 2018 уже +4,8% при среднем показателе +6,8% с 2014 по 2016) также способствует сокращению инвестиций страны.

Однако в целом эти процессы не помешали заключению ряда крупных сделок в первом полугодии. Например, после покупки китайским концерном ChemChina 95% швейцарской агрохимической компании Syngenta доля прямых инвестиций страны в сельскохозяйственный сектор достигла в первой половине 2017 12-летнего максимума (45%). Стоимость этой сделки (самой крупной в стране) составила порядка $41,2 млрд.

Китайские инвесторы отдают предпочтение сектору высоких технологий, транспортной и туристической отрасли, а также индустрии развлечений

Источник: MOFCOM, American Enterprise Institute, расчеты АКРА

Ограничения на инвестиции в сектор строительства и в индустрию развлечений, вероятно, снизят доли Европы и США в прямых инвестициях Китая. На сегодняшний день самые большие объемы инвестиций (70%) приходятся на эти регионы, на страны СНГ — всего 1%. Географическое распределение китайских прямых иностранных инвестиций напрямую связано с ростом интереса китайских инвесторов к акциям компаний сектора высоких технологий, индустрии развлечений и туристической отрасли, которые очень сильно развиты в Европе и США. Однако как раз из-за высокой востребованности данных отраслей введение ограничений на отток капитала может в будущем негативно сказаться на долях этих двух регионов в китайских инвестициях.

«Один пояс — один путь» — проект Китая по созданию новых торговых путей, связывающих Восток и Запад. Идея создания глобальной транспортной и инвестиционной инфраструктуры была впервые озвучена в 2013.

Около 68% от суммарного объема реализованных прямых инвестиций из Китая в Россию составляет сырье, а для Казахстана его доля равняется 100%. В последние годы доля инвестиций Китая в СНГ от всех его прямых иностранных инвестиций существенно упала (с 6,6% с 2005 по 2015 до 1,3% с 2016 по первое полугодие 2017): интерес страны к сырьевым инвестициям снизился. Но введение с 18 августа 2017 ограничений на отток капитала и начало стимулирования государством инвестиций в проект «Один пояс — один путь» дают шанс странам СНГ, расположенным непосредственно в регионе реализации проекта, нарастить эту долю.

Китай активно инвестирует в сектор высоких технологий, туристическую отрасль и индустрию развлечений в Европе и США

Источник: MOFCOM, American Enterprise Institute, расчеты АКРА

Финансовые потоки между Россией и Китаем заметно отстают от внешнеторговых: с 2015 по 2016 доля Китая в российском внешнем торговом обороте составила 10,1%, а доля прямых инвестиций — всего 5,4%. Одна из причин — растущий интерес китайцев к инвестициям в сектор высоких технологий, в транспортную и туристическую отрасли, в сектор машиностроения и в индустрию развлечений; в России же они чаще всего вкладываются в сырье. Увеличение на протяжении двух последних лет внешнеторгового оборота между Россией и Китаем объясняется преимущественно санкциями, введенными Западом в отношении РФ. В первом квартале 2017 прямые китайские инвестиции в Россию увеличились на 7,9%, при этом по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года объем крупных китайских инвестиций в РФ вырос в два раза. В АКРА ожидают, что в будущем реализация проекта «Один пояс — один путь» будет способствовать активизации торговли между двумя странами и дальнейшему увеличению доли Китая в прямых инвестициях в Россию.

Крупные объявленные прямые инвестиционные проекты Китая в Казахстане с 2005 по 2017


Источник: American Enterprise Institute, оценки АКРА







Источник



Теги: Казахстан

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