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По поводу американских баз в Казахстане

По поводу американских баз в Казахстане

26.04.2018

Автор: Сергей Масаулов

  Итак, свершилось. США получили возможность использовать территорию на Каспии для перевозки грузов в Афганистан. Завершился процесс обсуждения деталей соглашения между Астаной и Вашингтоном, начавшийся ещё в 2013 году. Данный документ дает согласие со стороны Казахстана на использование портов Актау и Курык на Каспийском море. Что произошло? Ничего необычного. Очевидно, что Астана в этом решении исходит из понимания национальных интересов.

        В чем они заключаются? Это  коммерческий транзит, следовательно, имеет место расчёт на получение дохода. Примечательно, что порт Курык уже начал использоваться китайской стороной для железнодорожных перевозок в рамках инициативы «Один пояс-один путь». Закономерно, что власти Казахстана реализуют свой интерес в развитии транспортно-логистического потенциала региона, используя весь спектр предложений.

        Надо сказать, что этот шаг вписывается в долгосрочные тренды внешней политики Казахстана. С начала 90-х годов Астана предоставляет возможности различным партнерам реализовать совместные проекты. Далеко не всегда эти партнеры испытывают друг к другу «нежные чувства». Однако принцип открытости укрепляет позиции Казахстана в международных отношениях. Впрочем, стоит учитывать и другой фактор - времена изменились, в такого рода решениях полезно подумать, а как это видится из других столиц.

        Второе. Просматривается расчёт руководства Казахстана на укрепление отношений с США. Цели примерно понятны - обеспечить содействие со стороны американского руководства при решении ряда «тонких» вопросов. На первом месте стоит «включение» режима стабильности и порядка во время возможных перемен на вершине власти.

        Третье. В Казахстане хотели бы считать, что в Москве понимают ситуацию. И не будут расценивать принятое решение как угрозу стратегическому союзнику. Хотя о балансе потерь и выгод здесь самый раз поговорить. И дело не только в коммерческом аспекте.

        На Каспии складывается кооперация Казахстана, Азербайджана, Узбекистана и Грузии по доставке военных грузов в Афганистан для американского персонала. Среди этих стран только Казахстан является членом ОДКБ. Подобная ситуация уже наблюдалась в Киргизии. Наличие американской военной базы, или логистической структуры с военными целями не способствовало укреплению доверия внутри ОДКБ.

        Встав на позицию, разрешающую американским военным использовать порты на Каспии, казахстанское руководство вводит Каспийский регион в зону прямых и непосредственных интересов США. Таким образом, вопросы Каспия теперь уже не являются исключительным интересом пяти каспийских государств. 

        Поэтому ряд экспертов оценивают американский военный транзит как угрозу архитектуре каспийской безопасности. Это фактор может нивелировать договорённости на Каспийском саммите в Астане. Поскольку неизбежно встанет вопрос об их конкретном содержании. А взаимное недоверие может перевести вопрос о демилитаризации каспийского региона в сугубо виртуальную область. 


Теги: Казахстан, США

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